Bruins attempt to clinch outright Pac-10 title

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/01/2007 - Pullman, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked UCLA Bruins are playing outstanding basketball at just the right time, and the team has traveled to Pullman for this evening's showdown with the Washington State Cougars.

UCLA closed out its first undefeated home season in 32 years with a 75-61 victory over Stanford on Saturday. The Bruins have clinched at least a share of the conference crown for the second consecutive year, and they can win the title outright with a victory this evening. They have won their last four games and are a favorite to grab one of the four top seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Washington State is the only other Pac-10 team still in contention for the conference crown, but it would need to win its final two games combined with a pair of losses by UCLA. The Cougars have won six of their last seven games to move to 23-5 overall and 12-4 in league play, and they are coming off a 58-54 decision over Oregon State on Saturday.

UCLA recorded a 55-52 decision over Washington State way back in December, and the Bruins own a commanding 90-13 advantage in the all-time series between the teams.

UCLA junior Arron Afflalo seems undecided if he will enter the NBA Draft after this season. If Saturday's game against Stanford did mark Afflalo's last a home as a Bruin, he certainly went out in style with 20 points and six rebounds. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute added 11 points for UCLA before fouling out, and Darren Collison posted 10 points, six assists and five steals. The Bruins knocked down 9-of-16 three-pointers and finished with only nine turnovers in the victory. Overall this season, Afflalo is netting 17.5 ppg, and he can score in a variety of ways. Josh Shipp is posting 13.3 ppg, and Collison checks in with 12.9 ppg, 160 assists and 61 steals. In conference games, UCLA is scoring 71.6 ppg while holding opponents to 60.9 ppg.

Derrick Low leads Washington State with 13.9 ppg on 41.3 percent shooting from three-point range, and Kyle Weaver checks in with 11.1 ppg, 4.8 apg and 59 steals. Daven Harmeling (9.9 ppg) and Ivory Clark (9.1 ppg) add further balance to the lineup. Strong defense is key to WSU's success, as it is limiting foes to 57.8 ppg on 39.4 percent shooting from the field. In the four-point win over Oregon State on Saturday, Aaron Baynes scored 14 points off the bench to pace the Cougars. Robbie Cowgill tallied 12 points, and Low pitched in 10 points. Washington State shot 50 percent from the floor and limited Oregon State to 37.5 percent. Also, the Cougars committed only six turnovers in the clash.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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