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05/11/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Most casual horse racing fans hold the Kentucky Derby in high regard. They also get revved up for the Belmont Stakes if a horse is in line for a possible Triple Crown. On the other hand, the Preakness Stakes usually gets lost in the shuffle.
Passionate fans of the sport, especially chalk players, love the Preakness as it usually is the most formful of the three races. In fact, the favorite has won seven of the last nine runnings, including Rachel Alexandras historic victory over the boys last May.
Nevertheless, the race isnt run just for the betting choice's benefit. Longshots have fared very well this decade when it comes to rounding out the exacta.
Two years ago, 39-1 Macho Again finished second behind Big Brown, and in 2005, Scrappy T, the co-seventh choice, filled out a $152.60 exacta in back of the favored Afleet Alex.
When Funny Cide rolled to a 9 3/4-length score in 2003, Midway Road, the next- to-last longshot, held off third choice Scrimshaw by three-quarters of a length to complete a $120.60 exacta, and one year earlier, the locally-trained three-year-old Magic Weisner rallied for second behind War Emblem. The 45-1 shot combined with the winning favorite for a $327.00 payout.
If you like a longshot in this years field, dont be fearful of betting him underneath the top two favorites.
Speaking of the Run for the Roses, after three straight years (2002-2004) of Derby winners capturing the second leg of the Triple Crown, only one has crossed the wire first at Pimlico since and that was the heavy 1-5 favorite, Big Brown.
Everyone remembers the tragedy that befell Barbaro in the 2006 running, and the following year, Street Sense failed to hold off the late charge by Curlin.
Not many folks expected Mine That Bird or Giacomo, the two 50-1 Derby winners, to come right back two weeks later and be draped with the Black-Eyed Susans, especially at 6-1 odds, but they both hit the board with the former running a game second to Rachel Alexandra and the latter finishing third behind Afleet Alex and Scrappy T.
Horses coming out of the Derby have won the Preakness 23 of the last 26 years, so on the surface, the odds look pretty sweet that Saturdays winner will be one of the five colts that raced at Churchill Downs on May 1. However, non- Derby horses have taken two of the last four as Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra crashed the party in 2006 and 2009, respectively.
My advice is to bet the horse with the best chance of winning, regardless of where he made his last start.
PREAKNESS TOSS-OUTS
Jackson Bend has finished first or second in nine of 10 career starts. However, his lone poor effort came on the biggest stage in the Kentucky Derby. The Nick Zito-trained colt had a decent trip in the Run for the Roses, but faltered late finishing 19-lengths behind Super Saver.
The son of Hear No Evil was bred to be a miler and it showed two weeks ago when he ran his final quarter-mile in 30 seconds flat. Harness horses come home faster than that!
Look for Jackson Bend to sit much closer to the pace on Saturday, but its extremely doubtful hell keep up with the other front runners through the stretch.
Due to his nose loss to Ice Box in the Florida Derby, Pleasant Prince lacked the graded earnings necessary to enter the Kentucky Derby. Nonetheless, his owner, Kenneth Ramsey, tried every which way possible to get the colt into the Churchill Downs starting gate, racing him twice in the month of April. Unfortunately, the plan backfired since Pleasant Prince lost by over nine lengths in both starts.
Most owners and trainers that skip the Derby and aim towards the Preakness do so to have a fresh horse on the third Saturday in May. However, Pleasant Prince does not fall into that category as this will be his third start in the last five weeks.
D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness five times, but the last came over a decade ago. Hell have a pair of colts in the 2010 running, one year after his Flying Private ran fourth at 25-1.
Northern Giant comes into the race off a last place finish in the Arkansas Derby. His two best races came in his two prior starts - the Risen Star (third) and Lanes End (second), but the winners of those two races - Discreetly Mine and Deans Kitten - finished 13th and 14th in the Kentucky Derby.
Northern Giant has no business being in the starting gate.
Dublin, his other Preakness starter, ran very well underneath the Twin Spires finishing seventh, beaten 7 1/2-lengths. Breaking from post 17, the son of Afleet Alex was well back early on before making a powerful run around the far turn closing to within two lengths of the lead.
However, he ran like a very tired horse through the stretch, bearing in and out before faltering late. In addition, his bold middle move was obviously helped by the fast pace set by both Conveyance and Sidneys Candy.
Dublin will put forth another decent effort but the 1 3/16-mile distance will prove too much for him to handle.
First Dude is another horse that will have trouble getting the 9.5-furlongs. In his two graded stakes attempts at 1 1/8-miles, he dropped back a combined 7 1/2 lengths in the final two furlongs.
The son of Stephen Got Even did have to steady at the top of the stretch in the Florida Derby, but he still finished more than six lengths behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince. In the Blue Grass, he ran close to the pace early on, only to finish third, beaten over five lengths by Stately Victor.
The only chance First Dude has of finishing in the money is if he changes his running style from stalker to closer, but based on his last workout it's doubtful therell be any transformation. The bay colt fired off a 1:00 3/5 bullet work at Churchill Downs, hitting the three-furlong marker in a brisk 35 1/5.
Like his former boss D. Wayne Lukas, Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher will have two colts on the track this Saturday.
Dogwood Stables Aikenite joins Super Saver in Pletchers quest to win his first ever Preakness Stakes, a race he's 0-4, including a last place finish in 2009 with Take the Points.
Aikenite, who has not won since breaking his maiden last August, has two in- the-money finishes this year along with a pair of clunkers. The colt does his best running from off-the-pace as witnessed by his exceptional efforts in last years Hopeful Stakes and Breeders Futurity, along with a second-place finish in the recently run Derby Trial. However, like many colts in the field, the final furlong will be his undoing.
Stay tuned later in the week for more analysis and predictions.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South. Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC. The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game. For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft. Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.
1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign? New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1. Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT. Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.
Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami
2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season. With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round. LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems. If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season. The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach. The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub. High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career. With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson.
Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season. The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age. It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot. This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.
Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season. On the clock: the NFC North
Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2
Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1
Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1
To visit this sportsbook get to MySportsbook.com for all your online sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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