Wanted: A must-see player for Clippers

Basketball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rapper Young Jeezy once boasted that mentioning his name would bring an entire city out.

That same drawing power can be heralded by LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and a just handful of other players in the NBA.

Unfortunately the "other" team in Hollywood, the Los Angeles Clippers, hasn't had the luxury of calling a true superstar player one of its own. Norm Nixon, Marques Johnson and Derek Smith were respectable in their time in LA, as were Danny Manning, Ron Harper, Elton Brand and Corey Maggette. But none were necessarily magnets for fans.

In order for the Clippers to step out of the shadows of the title-laden Lakers, they're going to have to do better than running out the current crop of high-level performers like Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon and Baron Davis. I'm not saying those players will be the death of another Clippers' season in 2010-11, but president Andy Roeser and assistant GM Neil Olshey could have pulled some strings via trade before the draft.

Let's not forget the two reached out to - and reached for - James before the multi-talented personality decided to take his talents to South Beach. The Clippers should have known they had a snowball's chance in the Staples Center parking lot to land the coveted free agent, and now they're left with basically the same roster as before. The team was honored to have been invited to meet with James and the main selling point was its "extraordinary nucleus of players."

If the Clippers are alluding to the core of players that competed to a 29-53 record a year ago, than I'm missing something here. Why in the world would James have ever wanted to perhaps finish his career in NBA purgatory? To me it's almost comparable to a Detroit Lions representative trying to persuade Peyton Manning or Tom Brady to play out their 2010 contract and head to Motown for a chance of winning three or four games over the next few years.

Not a chance.

Instead of pipe-dreaming over James, I would have tried to package a player or two and the Clippers' eighth overall pick in last month's NBA Draft for a veteran presence, or at least someone with credibility. Instead, Los Angeles brought back Craig Smith, added Willie Warren, Ryan Gomes and Randy Foye, and selected Al-Farouq Aminu with the No. 8 pick. It later snagged Eric Bledsoe with the 18th overall selection.

To me that spells another 20-to-30 win campaign, but don't tell that to new head coach Vinny Del Negro. Del Negro, who was able to ignore heat from upper management in Chicago and lead the Bulls to the playoffs, said in his introductory press conference that he's looking forward and feels the snake-bitten franchise is headed "in a different direction right now."

What direction are you alluding to, Mr. Del Negro? The Clippers were 28 games out of first place in the Pacific Division in 2009-10 and were lucky to finish third in the standings with Golden State and Sacramento doing slightly worse. I guess the only direction is up when your team finishes 8-33 on the road and 15-37 in conference play.

Del Negro noted that coaching the Clippers was the right opportunity for him and his family, and was able to beat out Mavericks assistant Dwane Casey for the job. Olshey commented on how Del Negro had solutions, and was able to overcome obstacles in Chicago en route to postseason appearances. Am I wrong here when I say that having Derrick Rose, arguably one of the best point guards in the game, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng would make drawing up X's and O's easier on any head coach? The larger perception was that the Bulls underachieved under Del Negro.

Let's see how the new coach does with a bunch of players only some in the City of Angels, and Malcolm in the Middle star Frankie Muniz, could identify.

Blake Griffin, the No. 1 overall pick in 2009, missed his rookie season after undergoing knee surgery and could be the name Clippers brass and fans will continue to rest their hopes on. Several pundits pegged Portland top pick Greg Oden - mired in a similar injury-laden situation - to do the same a few years ago and he's been a bust so far. Griffin seems to have more upside than Oden with his thick, muscular physique and just needs to develop an outside game.

But, Griffin also has to stay healthy, and has the added pressure of being counted on as the face of the organization. There's little to suggest that he's ready for that role.

With several other high Clippers draft picks washing out of the league in recent years, a lot of hope is resting on the repaired knee of the young power forward. Griffin's not going to garner the type of publicity James, Bryant or Howard can, but he'll make a Clippers team that much better with a serviceable supporting cast in Davis, Gordon and Kaman. Griffin said before the 2010 draft that he'd learned how to be patient with his rehab and is eager to hit the hardwood again. In my opinion, that should excite his teammates and coaching staff more than any of the changes the Clips have made this offseason.

Whether Griffin succeeds or fails, for a Clippers fan base that annually eyes a better tomorrow, the time is now for a big-time player to start filling the seats that have been too often vacant when the home team is wearing red and royal blue, as opposed to purple and gold.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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